Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Diagnosis V

The United States would have to keep the virus from spreading until it finally died out.

A diagnosis is generally denoted by metaphor, analogy, or reference to a diagnosis or framework that has already gained acceptance.  For example, every student of U.S. national strategy knows about the diagnosis associated with the Cold War guiding policy of containment.  This concept originated with George Kennan's famous "long telegram" of 1946.   Having served as an American diplomat in the USSR and having seen Soviet terror and politics at close hand, he carefully analyzed the nature of Soviet ideology and power.  

Kennan started with the observation that the Soviet Union was not an ordinary nation-state.  Its leaders defined their mission as opposition to capitalism and as spreading the gospel of revolutionary communism by whatever means necessary.  He stressed that antagonism between communism and capitalist societies was a central foundation of Stalin's political regime, preventing any sincere accommodation or honest international agreements.  However, he pointed out that the Soviet leaders were realists about power, Therefore, he recommended a guiding policy of vigilant counter force.

Kennan's diagnosis for the situation--a long-term struggle without the possibility of a negotiated settlement--was widely adopted within policy-making circles in the United States.   His guiding policy of containment was especially attractive as it specified a broad domain of action--the USSR was metaphorically speaking, infected by a virus.  The United States would have to keep the virus from spreading until it finally died out.

ACTION POINT:  When diagnosing a situation, consider a metaphor that may apply.

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