Anticipation II

The most critical anticipations are about the behaviors of others...

The most critical anticipations are about the behaviors of others, especially rivals.  It is now clear that U.S. military plans for the invasion of Iraq in the spring of 2003 failed to anticipate the rise of a vigorous insurgency.  As the army's own assessments states: "The difficulty in Iraq in April and May 2003 for the Army, and the other Services, was that the transition to a new campaign was not well thought out, planned for, and prepared for before it began.  Additionally, the assumptions about the nature of post-Saddam Iraq on which the transition was planned proved to be largely incorrect."

At the same time, the Iraqi insurgency was, at least in part, initiated by Iraqi ex-military officers who anticipated the media coverage of U.S.  casualties would tilt U.S. public opinion in favor of withdrawal, as it had in Vietnam and, more recently, in Mogadishu.  Indeed, according to Bob Woodward, "Saddam had commissioned an Arabic translation of Black Hawk Down issued copies to his senior offices."  So, in a deeper sense, U.S. planners failed to anticipate the Iraqis' anticipations.

ACTION POINT:  Consider the behaviors of your competitors.