Predictable Biases

It appeared that IBM's acquisition of a communications switch maker and AT&T's acquisition of a computer maker illustrated the path forward.

Another bias is that, faced with a wave of change, the standard forecast will be for a "battle of the titans." This prediction, that the market leaders will duke it out for supremacy, undercutting the middle-sized and smaller firms, is sometimes correct but tends to be applied to almost all situations.

For example, the "convergence" of computing and telecommunications had been predicted for many years.  It appeared that IBM's acquisition of a communications switch maker and AT&T's acquisition of a computer maker illustrated the path forward.   Like two sumo wrestlers, AT&T and IBM advanced to the center of the ring, preparing to grapple.  Then is was as if the floor beneath them crumbled, dropping both into a pit beneath.   The very foundations they had stood upon were eaten away by waves of change--the microprocessor, software, the deconstruction of computing, and the Internet.  Having a common fate was not the kind of convergence  that had even envisioned. 

ACTION POINT: Don't always assume that Titans will battle for supremacy.  Consider all of the shifts that may affect your industry.