Some Guideposts

Working with industry-wide or economy-wide change is even more advanced than particle physics-

It is hard to show your skill as a sailor when there is no wind.  Similarly, it is in moments of industry transition the that skills at strategy are most valuable.  During the relatively stable periods between episodic transactions, it is difficult for followers to catch the leader, just as it is difficult for one of the two or three leaders to pull far ahead of the others.  But in moments of transition, the old pecking order of competitors may be upset and a new order becomes possible.

There is not simple theory or framework for analyzing waves of change.  In the words of UC Berkley junior-physics professor, Nobel laureate Luis Alvarez, "This course is labeled 'advanced physics' because we don't understand it very well."  He explained, "If there were a clear and consistent theory about what is going on here, we would call this course 'elementary' physics."

Working with industry-wide or economy-wide change is even more advanced than particle physics--understanding and predicting patterns of these dynamics is difficult and chancy.  Fortunately, a leader does not need to get it totally right--the organization's strategy merely has to be more right than those of its rivals.

ACTION POINT: If you can peer into the fog of change and see 10 percent more clearly than others see, then you may gain and edge.