A Slowdown in Commodity Prices

it is a challenge to talk with any credibility about the direction of commodity prices. 

Even during the most stable and predictable of times, it is a challenge to talk with any credibility about the direction of commodity prices.  The economic downturn coupled with a far more complex, unpredictable and volatile economic environment now makes such predictions and trend analysis a truly daunting proposition with very limited potential for making accurate forecasts.

The world's economies and the underlying markets are more closely integrated than ever, as evidenced man made and natural environmental crisis such as the Gulf oil spill and the Japanese Tsunami, The European debt crisis and the out sized role the Chinese appetite for commodities and raw materials plays on global prices.   If there is one word that best captures the "trend" in most commodity categories it is "volatile."

ACTION POINT: Be prepared to move fast in an environment of volatility.